Islamabad: The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has raised concerns about a looming drought in several parts of the country due to significantly reduced rainfall.
In an advisory issued by the National Drought Monitoring Centre (NDMC) on Tuesday, the PMD revealed that inadequate rainfall across the plains has worsened drought-like conditions. This warning follows a similar advisory released on December 9.
From September 1, 2024, to January 15, 2025, Pakistan experienced a 40% drop in rainfall compared to normal levels. Sindh recorded the largest deficit, with 52% less rainfall, followed by Balochistan with a 45% shortfall and Punjab with 42%.
Several areas are experiencing mild drought conditions. In Punjab, this includes the Potohar region (Attock, Chakwal, Rawalpindi/Islamabad), Bhakkar, Layyah, Multan, Rajanpur, Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur, Faisalabad, Sargodha, Khushab, Mianwali, and D.G. Khan.
In Sindh, affected districts include Ghotki, Jacobabad, Larkana, Shaheed Benazirabad, Dadu, Padidan, Sukkur, Khairpur, Tharparkar, Hyderabad, Thatta, Badin, and Karachi.
Balochistan has also reported similar conditions in Ormara, Kharan, Turbat, Kech, Panjgur, Awaran, Lasbella, Nokkundi, Dalbandin, and surrounding areas.
The PMD warned that drought conditions are likely to intensify as no significant rainfall is forecasted for rain-fed regions of Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan. The second half of the season is predicted to remain as dry as the first, with warmer-than-average temperatures potentially worsening the situation. Mild drought conditions may escalate to moderate drought in the coming months.
Flash droughts—rapid intensifications of drought conditions—are also anticipated. Authorities have been urged to take proactive measures to address the situation in vulnerable regions.
The advisory highlighted that during the January-March 2025 period, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—a climate pattern affecting global rainfall—will remain a negative factor. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also transitioning from a negative to a neutral phase, which may influence weather patterns.
While central and southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, parts of Punjab, and adjoining areas of Azad Kashmir may receive normal to slightly above-normal rainfall, other regions, including upper KP, Hazara, Gilgit-Baltistan, Sindh, and eastern Balochistan, are likely to experience near-normal precipitation. Western Balochistan is expected to receive below-normal rainfall.
The PMD noted that slightly above-normal rainfall in northern regions during the early part of the season might help replenish reservoirs. However, reduced rainfall in southern Balochistan could strain water resources, impacting irrigation and domestic use. Authorities are advised to closely monitor water reservoir levels to ensure adequate supply.
Warmer temperatures and limited rainfall could also lead to the early onset of the pollen season in Rawalpindi and Islamabad and trigger heat stress in southern areas as early as March.
The PMD continues to monitor the evolving situation and urges timely interventions to mitigate the impact of drought conditions.
